FIRST PERSON | No matter which place they hold, anyone in the top three is a winner coming out of Iowa. Mitt Romney has sufficiently lowered expectations, and kept a fractured "anti-Romney" movement at bay. Ron Paul finally earns the credibility he has been searching for, and gives credence to his libertarian movement - the challenge will be the renewed scrutiny that comes with the status.
A week ago I would have pegged Paul for the top spot for one reason -- new people on caucus night. Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee won the caucuses because they brought out new folks who had never caucused, maybe never voted, before. I think that is true for Paul. His campaign is built on the energy of the disenchanted -- Republicans independents, as well as Democrats. I think folks who have never voted for a Republican will come out for Paul tonight, then never vote for another Republican again.
The reason I don't have him in my top spot, however, is that the Seltzer/Register poll last week heavily sampled independents into the mix. They left out Democrats, which I still think come out for Paul, but they included enough new voters and independents that it should give an accurate flavor of Paul's movement -- and he has essentially slipped into neutral with no upward movement.
Romney, on the other hand, keeps inching up. Many of Romney's critics lambast him for not paying enough attention to Iowa, not enough days visiting here in the last year. But tonight Romney will see the fruits of the labor he put in four years ago. People will come home for Romney for two traits also highlighted in the Seltzer poll -- presidential material, and electability in the general election. Yes, Republicans want a candidate they trust. But more so then four years ago they want a candidate that can win. They see that in Mitt Romney like no other.
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